The Five Stages of Egypt’s Revolution

It matters little who wins the presidency this weekend — a much bloodier uprising is inevitable.

Charles Holmes
Foreign Policy
6/15/2012

CAIRO – I was put on the spot by a wise old friend of mine in Washington several years ago. He wanted my pitch on Egypt in 30 seconds or less. “This is a town beset with attention deficit disorder,” he said, “so what have you got?” I gulped and offered up the “three Ms of Egypt”: the military, the mosque, and the masses.

Despite the popular revolt against Hosni Mubarak’s regime last year, it remains true that the only political contest that counts in Egypt has pitted its military generals against the mosque’s imams and leaders. Both want control over the masses — 85 million Egyptians. The recent elections highlighted these three Ms: However depressing for many reformers and activists, the culmination of nearly 18 months of mass protest now pits the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammad Morsi against Ahmed Shafiq, a retired military officer and former Mubarak prime minister.

Whether the military or the mosque wins the runoff this weekend, reformers and their supporters around the world need to consider some equally important potential futures scenarios…

The article continues at Foreign Policy.

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