Obama’s decline in the battleground states

Public Policy Polling

In our national polling Barack Obama is running six points behind his 2008 performance right now. He beat John McCain by seven points and his approval rating is a net +1.

Our state by state polling though is finding that in states with a competitive 2010 race- defined as one where we’ve polled a Senate or Gubernatorial race in single digits since November- there’s been a much larger decline in Obama’s popularity. Across those eight states his approval has dropped by an average of 12 points.

The biggest decline in Obama’s approval has been in Nevada where he won by 12 points in 2008 but where we now find him at a -8 spread. Harry Reid’s troubles may have as much to do with Obama as they do with him. The other two states where Obama’s seen the biggest decline have significant Hispanic populations as well- New Mexico where he’s dropped by 18 points and Texas where he’s dropped by 17 points.

If Obama’s popularity has fallen at a faster rate in the 2010 battleground states it’s obviously going to be harder for Democrats to win in them this fall.

An illustrative graph with the article can be viewed at PublicPolicyPolling.blogspot

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